2020 is moving away.
2021 is full of opportunities and approaching.
The year 2020 has been an incredible year for the pig industry and for the world as a whole. Many things have happened that we could never have imagined. However, time cannot be turned back. We will continue to move forward in 2021 by accumulating experience and learning lessons.
In the face of a New Year, whether individuals or enterprises, the country, need to make a new plan under reasonable forecast. Despite the risk of being hit in the face, I would like to continue to present my eight predictions for 2021 pig industry. We will see the conclusion in our own time, and welcome you to discuss the reasons for the analysis.
Guess one: Will there be a company with 30 million heads?
Giant expansion is the theme of pig industry in 2020. Many are exclaiming that China's pig industry will be dominated by giants in the future. Recently, the 10 listed pig enterprises also handed in the report card of 2020, their total output reached 53.26 million head, indeed already can reach 10% of the national annual output. However, looking at the specific data carefully, compared with the ambitious target set at the beginning of 2020, only Makihara, New Hope and Jinxinnong have achieved 10% of the target. And almost all enterprises in December, the monthly column is far more than other months more than twice, quite a bit of homework before school feeling.
This also left a huge suspense for 2021, December madness is really just a temporary operation for the annual report, or the beginning of the giant capacity explosion? After all, companies are not worried about the 2020 target. The 2021 target continues to increase, with the 10 companies' combined target reaching 144 million head, directly reaching 2.5 times the 2020 target. Among them, Wen's target is 30 million head, Zhengbang 25 million, New Hope 15 million, as the boss of Makihara is sold a pass, said the annual report to announce the specific target, but revealed 50 million capacity is also domineer leakage. Even if it fails to meet its target, it seems only a matter of time before a 30 million listed company emerges in 2021.
Guess two: non - plague vaccine will continue to "jump ticket"?
The word "jump ticket" may not be quite accurate, after all, officials have never said when the non-pestilential vaccine will be put on the market, and leaders from the central government to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have always stressed that the research and development of non-pestilential vaccine must be scientific and efficient. But for pig farmers, every development of a non-pestilence vaccine in 2020 does set off a flurry of debate about whether the vaccine is imminent.
But come 2021, the industry's attitude toward non-pandemic vaccines has changed dramatically. The damage to the industry caused by illegal non-pestilent seedlings such as White Bottle seedlings has affected many pig farmers, and the authorities have repeatedly stepped up efforts to crack down on them. More importantly, some large pig enterprises with technology and strength have established a complete biosafety control system of ASF. To some extent, they no longer need non-pestilence vaccines, or even oppose non-pestilence vaccines that are not safe and effective. It can be said that with the improvement of pig farming, non-plague seedlings are no longer the savior of the previous position. If a non-pestilence vaccine is to be available in 2021, it must first undergo rigorous and thorough testing.
Guess 3: The risk of COVID-19 is still there, and online will continue to be the mainstream channel for enterprise promotion?
The 2020 coronavirus pandemic has disrupted many industries, and pig farming is no exception. A series of online activities, such as cloud classes, cloud services, cloud promotion meetings, etc., are booming, and the once traditional pig farming industry is suddenly successful in the "cloud". Of course, with the control of the epidemic, many offline conferences have also been reopened in the second half of 2020, which are equally popular. But the pig industry has successfully opened up this channel online.
Recently, with the temperature dropping, the epidemic situation at home and abroad has become more serious. The pig industry must first strictly comply with national regulations to prevent and control the epidemic. At the same time, in the whole winter, and even the first half of the year, the industry's original offline activities will face the risk of suspension or termination. After last year's market education, this year's major enterprises will again focus on online will undoubtedly reduce a lot of resistance. And as online meetings and short videos become a real part of a pig farmer's life. This change in distribution channels will no longer be a real long-term trend just because of the pandemic. Turn on your mobile phone every night on time to watch live lectures, perhaps will become the norm for most pig farmers.
Guess 4: The central 1 document again focuses on pig farming?
The 1 Central Document for 2020 mentioned pig farming at an unprecedented length, with nine major measures setting the direction of all pig farming policies for the year. Subsequently from the national to local pig industry support policies emerge in endlessly, a strong support for the resumption of pig production. In 2021, we believe that pig production will remain the focus of the central government. Although the resumption of pig production has made great progress, it is not yet complete, which is reflected in the soaring pig prices. Pig industry to complete the resumption of production standards, in addition to the recovery of stocks, pig prices really return to normal is the most core index.
In 2021, the central and local governments will still focus on stable production and supply, but will not necessarily promote the launch of a large number of new projects like last year. The best way to support the pig industry is to balance the requirements of environmental protection, economic and other aspects, and make more scientific and long-term pig breeding planning.
Guess five: pig prices will fall back to the cost line?
Pig price is the eternal guess of the pig industry. Although pig prices are determined by a simple principle of supply and demand. Yet another big guess that always accompanies the price of pigs is how many pigs China has and will have in the future. A simple breeding sow list number, ten industry people can come up with ten versions. For example, at the end of 2020, officials just announced that the stock of live pigs had increased for nine consecutive months, returning to the usual level of 90%. But in the same period the pig price has opened a new round of sharp rise, some areas back to 20 yuan/jin this important psychological threshold.
And unlike last year, at the beginning of 2020, everyone knew that the price of pigs would never be low, and everyone knew how scarce pigs were, which has since been proved. Opinions on 2021 pig prices are more divided than usual. A very interesting example is that the Nongcai Baodian Xinmu website reported two days ago that an analyst believed that the pig price would fall to 25 yuan/kg in the second half of 2021. Many readers commented on whether they wrote the wrong unit, which should be 25 yuan/jin. And the two opposite sides are confident in their ideas.
On the pig bearish camp, there is no shortage of industry leaders. Tao Yishan pig price 5 yuan theory we are naturally familiar with. Liu Yonghao also said recently: by the middle of 2021 or the second half of the year, pig prices will gradually recover to a relatively reasonable price, and by 2022 there will be a possibility of pig prices below the cost line. Bigwigs speak of natural confidence is from the strong expansion of their own enterprises.
However, I think the industry can look at this problem from more new angles, the smell of capital has always been the most sensitive, January 8 listed live pig futures is a brand new reference. What many people did not expect was that the LH2111 contract corresponding to the pig price in November 2021 fell to 23250 yuan/ton from 29680 yuan/ton in just two trading days, down as much as 21.7%, the corresponding pig price is 11.6 yuan/catty. Could this be the real pig price in November?
Guess six: No more imported meat?
China is expected to import more than 4 million tons of meat in 2020, not only a record, but also a direct doubling of the record. The pig industry itself certainly does not welcome imported meat, but after the African disease, tens of millions of tons of pork gap left there, the growth of imported meat is unstoppable. But imported meat alone will certainly not solve the pork supply.
But meat imports in 2021 will face a whole new headwind: the risk of COVID-19. Recently, the packaging of imported frozen products in China has repeatedly tested positive for COVID-19, and there have even been several local cases of COVID-19 caused by imported frozen products. Considering the seriousness of the epidemic abroad, it is feared that the risk of imported meat epidemic will remain for a long time. Many consumers are opting out of imported meat, which has helped push up prices. In 2021, it will be difficult for imported meat to continue to grow.
Guess seven: building pig facing practical test?
Building pig raising is also very popular in 2020, and the pig industry keeps refreshing the height of building pig raising. If the sheer height of the floor, but also a bit of a gimmick. Recently, Muyuan is composed of 21 6-story buildings and pig houses in the world's largest single annual output of 2.1 million pig farm completed, can be said to truly announce that building pig has become a new industry standard. From the very beginning, there were many pig farmers who were skeptical about the practicalities of building pig farming in terms of biosafety, pig transfer, and waste disposal. Of course, each building pig enterprises also gave their own plan. It can be said that in the 1.0 era of building pigs, there was no real standard. What's more, many large residential pig projects will only be under construction in 2020. In 2021, there will be a large number of building pig projects to really into pigs, and gradually full of pens. Practice is the only standard to test truth. For building pig breeding, 2021 is bound to reflect the real advantages and disadvantages of different designs. The era of building pig breeding 2.0 is coming.
Guess eight: 80 after the chairman, 00 after the farm, pig industry set off a storm of youth?
Pig farming has always been known as a sunrise industry. In recent years, the group of pig farmers is also quietly changing. Liu Chang, Lin Feng, Tao Ye and other second-generation pigs have begun to become the leaders of major farming and animal husbandry enterprises, and the employees of pig farms are also getting younger. The author has met two pig farm managers born in 1998. The sustainable development of an industry inevitably requires an influx of new blood. And these young people into the pig industry, is not a simple succession. The whole industry will be reshaped by the new thinking brought by young people. They will complement the smart, intensive trend of pig farming itself, and the future of pig farming will no longer be a traditional agriculture, but a truly future-oriented industry.